The Weekend Preview – Value Bets in the Premier League and Beyond (Part 2)

*All odds courtesy of William Hill and Sporting Bet*

Saturday, August 18 (Kick Off 3PM)

West Ham v Aston Villa

This one has got draw written all over it, hasn’t it? Two sides who will huff and puff yet ultimately be unable to break the other down. West Ham under Big Sam will be especially cagey at home, and Villa - in our opinion - lack that bit of creativity to unlock the door. 

The Verdict: When Darren Bent is playing there is always the chance of a goal or two, but this looks like a low scoring bore draw to us. This is why the 11/5 on offer from William Hill for the draw really appeals. As does Sporting Bet’s ‘Draw – Under 3.5 Goals’ at 100/300, which is basically a really easy way to treble your money. Lump on.

Saturday, August 18 (Kick Off 5:30PM)

Newcastle v Tottenham

This is a cracking fixture to begin ESPN’s televised Premier League season. Newcastle will be looking to build on their fantastic last campaign, and will be looking to their African duo Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse to bother scoreboards across the country if they are to replicate that.

Spurs on the other hand have a new commander in Andres Villas-Boas, who will be determined to put his Chelsea nightmare behind him. His biggest headache will be a lack of striking options, although you can expect one or indeed both of Rafa Van Der Vaart and Gylfi Sigurdsson to cause mischief between the Magpies’ rigid defence and midfield.

The Verdict: Without wanting to get too technical, here at Route One we can see AVB’s favoured 4-2-3-1 formation causing havoc with Alan Pardew’s traditional 4-4-2 set-up. Expect RVDV to slide a pass through to Jermain Defoe at some point for the pint sized marksman to slot home (12/5, SB).

Sunday, August 19 (Kick Off 1:30PM)

Wigan v Chelsea

The Latics enjoyed a cracking run towards the tail-end of last season, and they wouldn’t have wanted the season to end. That will count for nothing against Roberto Di Matteo’s ‘Champions of Europe’ however.

To their credit, Roberto Martinez’s men will try and play their football, but that will play right into Chelsea’s hands. Buoyed by the marquee signings of Eden Hazard and Oscar, and the rejuvenated figure of Fernando Torres, the Blues look a dangerous outfit.

The Verdict: Torres is 4/1 with William Hill to score two or more, which we like very much, and Chelsea are 11/5 to win both halves with Sporting Bet. Both are very appealing.

Sunday, August 19 (Kick Off 4PM)

Man City v Southampton

Following their dramatic, last gasp crowning as champions last campaign, we expect the blue half of Manchester to continue to go from strength to strength. A full season of Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez playing together – with Super Mario waiting in the wings – is a mouth watering prospect.

Much will depend on how Rickie Lambert takes to life in the Premiership as to how Southampton will perform. If he’s more Grant Holt than Connor Sammon, then they’ve got an outside chance of survival. But come what may, Nigel Adkins’ men will be well organised, compact and difficult to beat. But as opening day assignments go, they don’t come much trickier.

The Verdict: Don’t touch any goals coupons here – this could be close or an absolute rout. Either way, Citeh will win – so let’s hedge our bets and make it 2-0 (6/1, WH).

Monday, August 20th (Kick Off 8PM)

Everton v Man Utd

Perhaps the most eagerly awaited fixture of the opening weekend this. Robin Van Persie’s signing has captured the headlines, but keep an eye on Shinji Kagawa’s performance if he starts. This lad comes bearing rave reviews. How Sir Alex incorporates RVP, Wayne Rooney and possibly Danny Welbeck into the same front-line will also come under scrutiny too.

David Moyes’ men may have lost Jack Rodwell and Tim Cahill, but they are made of stern stuff and have a decent record against the Red Devils by all accounts – remember the 4-4 draw at Old Trafford last season?

The Verdict: A bit of a bloodthirsty one we reckon, we can anticipate Everton taking the lead in this one – especially with Man Utd’s defensive frailties. Expect their dominance to eventually overcome the Toffees though. William Hill’s ‘First Goal Wincast’ of Nikica Jelavic to score first but United to win weighs in at 19/2, and that is our best value find.

The Route One Home Banker Treble

We are backing Fulham (Norwich), Fleetwood (Torquay) and Plymouth (Aldershot). A £10 stake returns £85.

The Route One Away Day Treble

We are backing Chelsea (at Wigan), Middlesborough (at Barnsley) and Coventry (at Yeovil). A £10 stake returns £90.

Good luck! And let us know how your weekend lays go.

Place Your Bets! A Few Cheeky Predictions for the Premier League 2012/13 (Part Two)

Here is our guide to the Premier League runners and riders for a top four finish, top goalscorer and first managerial sacking, plus a little Route One special.

Top 4 Finish

The top four can be purged from six in our opinion. Both Manchester clubs are in, Chelsea are in, and then it’s a North London showdown between Spurs and Arsenal for the coveted fourth spot.

It’s a tough one to call – at Tottenham you’ve got a good, solid squad, with a new gaffer in charge in the form of Andres Villas-Boas, who will be desperate to prove his doubters wrong. Unfortunately, at the time of writing, he has only one recognised striker on the books in Jermain Defoe, so he needs to get the cheque book out one would suggest.

The Gooners, on the other hand, are - for the first time in a long time – blessed with an armoury of attacking talent.  Alongside Robin Van Persie should he stay, are new signings Lukas Podolski – who tends to score regularly for club and country, plus Oliver Giroud, the latest addition to Arsene Wenger’s French battalion. Add in to the mix the explosive talents of Santi Cazorla, and for once Arsene has spent – and spent well.

The Verdict: For fans of a bit of value, Spurs are 2/1 with William Hill. But for purveyors of the smart money, pop down to Paddy Power for a quick lay on Arsenal (10/11).

Top Goalscorer

This coupon is always worth a cheeky punt on – with such an open field there really is some great value to be had. A lot may centre around RVP’s final destination – should he stay at Arsenal, he will be surrounded by a new wave of creative talent (Cazorla, Podolski etc), so expect another prolific season from the 10/1 priced Dutchman.

Another name in the frame could well be Fernando Torres (10/1, Ladbrokes). The Spaniard is set to start the season as Chelsea’s main man, following the departure of Didier Drogba. So expect him to be the spearhead in Roberto Di Matteo’s preferred 4-2-3-1 formation. With the likes of Juan Mata, Frank Lampard, Ramires and Sturridge around, this could well be the season that El Nino rediscovers his goal-den touch (boom boom).

Two others that are certainly worth a cheeky fiver are Papiss Cisse (20/1, William Hill) and Jermain Defoe (40/1, Paddy Power). Newcastle’s Ivorian loved his first season in the Premier League, banging in goals left, right and centre. Goalscoring looks so natural to Cisse that  it would be hard to see him fall foul of the dreaded Second Season Syndrome.

Defoe, on the other hand, will benefit from a change in guv’nor at White Hart Lane. Harry Redknapp obviously didn’t fancy the pint sized marksmen, but with Emmanuel Adebayor returning to his parent club Man City and Louis Saha being released, Defoe finds himself as automatic first choice unless new signings are made. His goal scoring record has never been in doubt, so expect some net busting from the wee man.

First Managerial Sacking

As ever, the vultures will start circling around October time, so it’s crucial that results keep those pesky birds of prey at bay.

Expect the spotlight to fall on two novices of Premier League management: Michael Laudrup and Steve Clarke. Laudrup has had a mixed career in management as it is, but replacing Brendan Rodgers is a massive task. He will continue the Swans’ passing philosophy - which is to his credit – but Swansea will be missing the goals of Gylfi Sigurdsson and quite the guile of Joe Allen. A few disastrous early results and the great Dane could be joining the queue down the Job Centre.

His appointment at West Bromwich Albion is Clarke’s first as a manager, although he does boast an enviable reputation as an exceptional coach following stints at Chelsea and Liverpool. That will count for nothing though as he looks to maintain the decent job performed by Roy Hodgson. Another one who will be looking over his shoulder if the Baggies endure a tough autumn...

A bet of real value could be Roberto Di Matteo being the first to get his marching orders. This sounds madness in the light of his achievements of last campaign, but his employer is renowned for his lack of patience, and there is a theory known as the ‘Caretaker Effect’. This concept revolves around the notion that nine times out of ten the good work performed by a caretaker gaffer will often come undone when they are given the gig on a permanent basis.

The Verdict: It’s a bit of a long shot, but pop down your local bookies or scout around online for odds on Roberto Di Matteo to be the first managerial sacking of the season – especially with Harry Redknapp currently signing on and looking for work.

Route One Special:  QPR for a top ten finish (9/4, William Hill). Just wait and see.