Friday, 17 August 2012

The Weekend Preview – Value Bets in the Premier League and Beyond (Part 2)


*All odds courtesy of William Hill and Sporting Bet*

Saturday, August 18 (Kick Off 3PM)


West Ham v Aston Villa

This one has got draw written all over it, hasn’t it? Two sides who will huff and puff yet ultimately be unable to break the other down. West Ham under Big Sam will be especially cagey at home, and Villa - in our opinion - lack that bit of creativity to unlock the door. 

The Verdict: When Darren Bent is playing there is always the chance of a goal or two, but this looks like a low scoring bore draw to us. This is why the 11/5 on offer from William Hill for the draw really appeals. As does Sporting Bet’sDraw – Under 3.5 Goals’ at 100/300, which is basically a really easy way to treble your money. Lump on.

Saturday, August 18 (Kick Off 5:30PM)


Newcastle v Tottenham

This is a cracking fixture to begin ESPN’s televised Premier League season. Newcastle will be looking to build on their fantastic last campaign, and will be looking to their African duo Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse to bother scoreboards across the country if they are to replicate that.

Spurs on the other hand have a new commander in Andres Villas-Boas, who will be determined to put his Chelsea nightmare behind him. His biggest headache will be a lack of striking options, although you can expect one or indeed both of Rafa Van Der Vaart and Gylfi Sigurdsson to cause mischief between the Magpies’ rigid defence and midfield.

The Verdict: Without wanting to get too technical, here at Route One we can see AVB’s favoured 4-2-3-1 formation causing havoc with Alan Pardew’s traditional 4-4-2 set-up. Expect RVDV to slide a pass through to Jermain Defoe at some point for the pint sized marksman to slot home (12/5, SB).

Sunday, August 19 (Kick Off 1:30PM)


Wigan v Chelsea

The Latics enjoyed a cracking run towards the tail-end of last season, and they wouldn’t have wanted the season to end. That will count for nothing against Roberto Di Matteo’s ‘Champions of Europe’ however.
To their credit, Roberto Martinez’s men will try and play their football, but that will play right into Chelsea’s hands. Buoyed by the marquee signings of Eden Hazard and Oscar, and the rejuvenated figure of Fernando Torres, the Blues look a dangerous outfit.

The Verdict: Torres is 4/1 with William Hill to score two or more, which we like very much, and Chelsea are 11/5 to win both halves with Sporting Bet. Both are very appealing.

Sunday, August 19 (Kick Off 4PM)


Man City v Southampton

Following their dramatic, last gasp crowning as champions last campaign, we expect the blue half of Manchester to continue to go from strength to strength. A full season of Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez playing together – with Super Mario waiting in the wings – is a mouth watering prospect.

Much will depend on how Rickie Lambert takes to life in the Premiership as to how Southampton will perform. If he’s more Grant Holt than Connor Sammon, then they’ve got an outside chance of survival. But come what may, Nigel Adkins’ men will be well organised, compact and difficult to beat. But as opening day assignments go, they don’t come much trickier.

The Verdict: Don’t touch any goals coupons here – this could be close or an absolute rout. Either way, Citeh will win – so let’s hedge our bets and make it 2-0 (6/1, WH).

Monday, August 20th (Kick Off 8PM)


Everton v Man Utd

Perhaps the most eagerly awaited fixture of the opening weekend this. Robin Van Persie’s signing has captured the headlines, but keep an eye on Shinji Kagawa’s performance if he starts. This lad comes bearing rave reviews. How Sir Alex incorporates RVP, Wayne Rooney and possibly Danny Welbeck into the same front-line will also come under scrutiny too.

David Moyes’ men may have lost Jack Rodwell and Tim Cahill, but they are made of stern stuff and have a decent record against the Red Devils by all accounts – remember the 4-4 draw at Old Trafford last season?

The Verdict: A bit of a bloodthirsty one we reckon, we can anticipate Everton taking the lead in this one – especially with Man Utd’s defensive frailties. Expect their dominance to eventually overcome the Toffees though. William Hill’s ‘First Goal Wincast’ of Nikica Jelavic to score first but United to win weighs in at 19/2, and that is our best value find.

The Route One Home Banker Treble

We are backing Fulham (Norwich), Fleetwood (Torquay) and Plymouth (Aldershot). A £10 stake returns £85.

The Route One Away Day Treble

We are backing Chelsea (at Wigan), Middlesborough (at Barnsley) and Coventry (at Yeovil). A £10 stake returns £90.

Good luck! And let us know how your weekend lays go.

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